Now suppose that someone with good intentions were to take Joseph Smith’s article and edit it in a few places, modifying the specifics of where the Jaredites arrived - like this:

“…Again, those nations, of families, embodied themselves together and traveled they know not where, but at length arrived in the country of Aztalan, of the lake country of America on the coast of Central America. The Book of Mormon says, that the brother of Jared cried unto the Lord, that he would give them another land; the Lord heard him, and told him to go to a certain place, "and there I will meet thee and go before thee into a land which is choice above all the land of the earth." This it further speaks implies is the land of America must be the country of Mexico. The coincidence is so striking that further comment is unnecessary.-ED.”

Can statistics catch all these edits and tell us who edited what in the article?  In other words, statistically speaking, how does the altered article compare with the article that Joseph actually signed?

Let’s see:

Here is the data comparing the original and altered article:

Next are the analysis results:

I performed this test using a statistical program called Minitab. The log of the data was found to be “normally distributed”. This allowed me to subject the data to what is called a “two sample T test”. The average sentence lengths of the two articles are practically identical! According to these results the two articles are about 98.6% indistinguishable – yet one of the articles we know Joseph Smith endorsed while the other is altered (by me) in what some would consider a significant way. It is important to emphasize that the altered article is not significantly changed in sentence length compared to the original!

Next let’s take a letter written and signed by Joseph Smith while in hiding (September 6, 1842), and compare this with a sample of John Taylor’s writing (from his work The Gospel Kingdom, pp. 65-69). By the way, Joseph’s signed and canonized epistle, “the word of the Lord” according to LDS D&C 127:10, reveals the Finger Lakes location of the Book of Mormon land Cumorah. (Joseph's epistle is canonized as LDS D&C 128:20)

Above: The source of the John Taylor writing sample

Here is the data. We can be confident that Joseph wrote and signed the epistle that became the 128^th section of the LDS Doctrine and Covenants, and that John Taylor wrote the arbitrary sample included in the test.

Here are the results of the statistical test:

The interesting thing is that both writing samples show roughly the same average number of words per sentence (28 to 31 words per sentence on average). Joseph Smith's average word length is a little higher. The scatter (or standard deviation) is different between the two writings. Overall, on the basis of sentence length and its variance, John Taylor’s writing sample is about 97% indistinguishable from Joseph Smith’s!

How could anyone completely sort out who wrote what in an anonymous short piece, potentially edited by John Taylor and others, if all they had to go on is average sentence length and its variance? Even if an article were found to contain an expression unique to Joseph Smith, this would not prove that he endorsed all the edits by other potential contributors. The unsigned "ZARAHEMLA" article (T&S, October 1, 1842) in fact uses the first person plural: "Since our 'Extract' was published... we have found...so we make another EXTRACT..." One cannot catch all the possible edits and alterations with statistics!

Finally, let’s compare the average sentence length of the unsigned “ZARAHEMLA” piece, with other Times and Seasons articles that touch on the subject of Book of Mormon lands. Other articles, that is, actually signed by Joseph Smith.

Here is the data:

Here are the results:

So, was the exuberant “ZARAHEMLA” piece composed by the same contributors as the articles signed with Joseph Smith's "ED"? The statistical answer is, maybe, maybe not! It is not certain! The important thing to focus on, is the fact that no amount of statistics can tell us the extent to which Joseph Smith approved the conclusions of the unsigned “ZARAHEMLA” piece. There simply is no statistical substitute for Joseph Smith’s signature; which is precisely what this inordinately touted newspaper article lacks.

Joseph Smith had made known that at least some Book of Mormon events took place in his own country. Beyond this he allowed the brethren to form and express divergent opinions - which they did. But not one of the early brethren questioned the location of Cumorah given in scripture. For this reason, none of the speculative Times and Seasons articles suggest that all Book of Mormon lands reside in Mesoamerica. Instead, the brethren developed a variety of far flung settings all recognizing the Finger Lakes location of Cumorah. Had they been more cognizant of Book of Mormon details, and more willing to let go of John Lloyd Stephens, they may have realized that other Nephite lands could not possibly be thousands of miles distant from Cumorah.

Can we trust D&C 128:20 to tell us the whereabouts of the genuine land Cumorah? Yes. This epistle to the Church (also appearing in the October 1, 1842 edition of the Times and Seasons) was signed - Joseph Smith. The unsigned and inconsistent newspaper articles, on the other hand, are little more than speculative sand - not suitable for identifying a Promised Land. Joseph Smith never sought to endorse their contents with his signature.

© 2010 W. Vincent Coon